Mobile-Phone Flash-Memory Suppliers Vie for Position
[ September 16th 2004] The mobile-phone market
is becoming an
increasingly
competitive battleground for flash-memory
suppliers, with
the
already intense
fight among NOR-type flash makers now
expanding
to include NAND-type
flash producers.
The flash-memory market, particularly the NOR segment, is
set to have a
robust 2004. NOR flash memory sales, including revenue from
Multichip
Packages (MCPs), will rise to $10.3 billion in 2004, up 39
percent from $7.4
billion in 2003, iSuppli Corp. predicts.
The success of the NOR flash market is being driven by its
largest
application: mobile handsets. Revenue from mobile handsets
accounted
for 66
percent of NOR flash revenue and for 39 percent of total
flash sales
in the
first half of 2004, iSuppli estimates. This represents a 52
percent
increase
for NOR flash and a 150 percent increase for NAND compared
to the first half
of 2003.
Spansion Leads, Samsung Surges
The table below represents iSuppli ' s
ranking of the
top suppliers of flash
memory for mobile phones in the first
half of 2004.
NOR-maker Spansion
in the first half remained the
number-one mobile-phone
flash-memory supplier, a position it claimed from fellow
NOR-manufacturer
Intel Corp. in 2003. Spansion commanded 24.9
percent of the
market on
revenue of $845.7 million. The company ' s wireless
flash
revenue nearly
doubled compared to the first half of 2003.
Intel was the second-largest flash supplier to the mobile
handset market,
with a 23.2 percent market share on revenue of $785.4
million. Ranked third
and fourth were NOR-flash suppliers Sharp Corp. and
STMicroelectronics,
which held market shares of 12.5 percent and 10.4 percent on
revenue of $424
million and $354.4 million respectively.
Rounding out the top-five was NOR and NAND-flash supplier
Samsung
Electronics Co. Ltd., which had a market share of 8.1
percent. Samsung ' s
mobile-phone flash memory business achieved blistering
growth in the first
half of 2004, with sales rising 1,187 percent from the same
period a year
earlier. However, that growth was from a very low base.
More NOR vs. NAND
NOR historically has been the dominant type of flash
memory for mobile
phones. Most mobile phones today employ NOR for Execute in
Place (XIP) code
storage, combined with SRAM or Pseudo SRAM (PSRAM) for
buffer or working
memory.
However, newer-generation mobile phones not only are
communicators, but
also MP3 players, Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs) and
digital still and
digital video cameras. All this new functionality is driving
up the data
processing and storage needs of mobile phones rapidly,
opening opportunities
for NAND flash to be used as an alternative to NOR.
This has transformed the mobile-phone business into a
highly contested
battleground for the NOR and NAND flash- memory makers.
While the NOR flash suppliers continue to favor a
mobile-phone memory
solution that combines NOR flash with SRAM or PSRAM, the
NAND makers are
promoting an alternative approach that combines NAND and
SDRAM. This battle
is just beginning; of the $3.4 billion worth of flash memory
shipped to the
mobile-phone market in the first half, 96 percent was NOR
and only 4 percent
was NAND.
While NAND will make inroads in feature-rich mobile
phones, NOR will
remain the dominant form of flash used in wireless handsets
for the next
several years, iSuppli predicts. By 2008, NOR will account
for 80 percent of
the flash found in mobile phones. This is good news for the
NOR flash
suppliers in light of strong expected growth for mobile
phone shipments.
Q3 Flash Hiccup Doesn ' t Derail Growth
Due to slower-than-anticipated chip sales growth in the
present quarter,
the financial community recently has voiced concerns that
the semiconductor
market has peaked, and that the next chip downturn will
arrive next year. In
line with overall market trends, flash-memory sales also
have experienced
some slowing in the third quarter.
However, the fourth quarter should be very strong for
flash, in line with
normal seasonal patterns, iSuppli predicts. This will ensure
another
consecutive year of flash memory market revenue growth.
iSuppli predicts that flash-memory revenue, including
sales of MCPs, will
rise to $16.6 billion in 2004, up 46 percent from $11.64
billion in 2003.
The prodigious year-over-year growth seen in 2003 and 2004
will not persist
in 2005, but the market will continue to expand, with
revenue rising to
$17.5 billion, up 5 percent from 2004. Worldwide
flash-memory revenue will
rise at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 14 percent
from 2003 to
2008, iSuppli predicts.